LockPush — Ballard Locks wait forecast

About LockPush: where the numbers come from, straight answers, membership, and terms

About LockPush

Last updated 2026-08-29

LockPush answers one question: how long will a recreational boat wait at the Ballard Locks? It is free, has no accounts and no ads, and is built and operated by Clear Fountain LLC — the maker of TidePush, the Pacific Northwest tide and current passage planner.

Where the numbers come from

Boats ahead of you

When the forecast says at least N boats ahead, each of those N is a hull with a transponder that is either inside a lock chamber or holding in a waiting area: inside the drawn boundary and not moving, where not moving means it has drifted less than 40 m in the last five minutes. Speed over ground is ignored once five minutes of track exist, because a small boat's transponder reports up to two knots while tied to a wall. A boat moored in the marinas either side of those areas is never counted, however long it sits, and a boat under way inside an area is not counted until it settles. A boat on the lake side is bound for the Sound, one on the Sound side for the Lakes. The count is a floor: most recreational boats carry no transponder at all.

Instrument hierarchy

Where instruments disagree, trust flows in a fixed order: Corps records first (official, complete, 24/7 — every lockage that happened), AIS second (live positions on both approaches: commercial vessels and the recreational boats that carry a transponder), camera third (retired: the cameras are now links to look at, not an instrument the figures come from).

>

How the forecast works, in one paragraph

Waits decompose into a mechanical chamber cycle (median 18 minutes, fitted LogNormal) and a demand-driven queue, modeled as "make this cycle or miss it": measured, ~60% of boats make the next cycle and ~33% wait one more. Estimates are medians of the last 30 days for your hour band and direction, scaled by how the lock is running today (queue pace and chamber pace measured separately), plus a full-cycle penalty when commercial traffic — which legally locks first and never shares the small lock — is scheduled or observed approaching. Calibration is checked on held-out days: the 10–90% band caught 79% of actual waits (target 80%).

Hypotheses we tested and rejected

The model only keeps terms that survive the data. Two that didn't: "a big batch drains the queue" (reversed — big batches mark rush periods; waits after them run longer, which the forecast now uses as a rush signal) and "high tide shortens the cycle" (~0.07 min/ft after controlling for time of day — no tide term exists in LockPush).

Honest limits

The Corps logs recreational boats as anonymous grouped records, so nobody can count individual boats from the feed; records appear only after a lockage completes; closures, low-water operations and staffing can push waits far past any forecast. LockPush is planning guidance, not official lock status and not a navigational authority — see the terms. The forecast is checked against the Corps' own records after the fact, figure by figure: see how the forecast has been doing.

Ballard Locks: straight answers for boaters

Last updated 2026-09-03 · timing figures measured from US Army Corps of Engineers lockage records by LockPush
How long is the wait at the Ballard Locks right now?
Only the live forecast can say: it computes the current expected transit — arrival to clearing the chamber — from the Corps' lockage records, by direction; no official live figure exists.
How long does it take to get through the Ballard Locks?
About 27 minutes at the median, arrival to clearing the chamber — the lockage included, not queue time alone; how that splits into queue and chamber, the spread around it and the hour-by-hour medians are on the wait-times page.

The questions on this page say wait because that is what boaters search for; every figure they point to is transit — arrival to clear, the lockage included.

What's the best time to go through the Ballard Locks?
Evening — measured hour by hour on the wait-times page, noon runs about double the evening, and the mechanism is the queue, not the chamber. What to do about it — pick the hour, dodge commercial traffic, read the cycle, be ready to load — is the strategy page; holiday weekends and event days are a separate problem, on the event calendar.
Are the Ballard Locks open 24 hours?
Yes — vessel traffic runs 24/7 year-round, on demand, with no timetable; the exception is maintenance, chiefly the large lock's usual November closure (noted on the wait-times page; check the Corps' pages for current closures).
Do the Ballard Locks cost money or need a reservation?
No fee, no reservation, no permit, for any vessel — first-come, first-served within the federal priority order, which is spelled out on the commercial priority page.
Which lock will my boat use — the big one or the small one?
The attendants decide, not you — be rigged for either; nearly all recreational traffic uses the small lock, the large lock serves barge tows and overflow, and both chambers are described on how the locks work.
What lines and fenders do I need for the Ballard Locks?
Two 50-foot lines with spliced eyes, bow and stern, and fenders on both sides — the full checklist and the sequence are in the transit guide.
Can I take a kayak or paddleboard through the Ballard Locks?
Kayaks: yes, small lock only — raft up and hold the wall as directed. Jet skis: small lock only. Paddleboards: prohibited in both chambers per the locks' boater guidance.
What VHF channel do the Ballard Locks monitor?
Channel 13, staffed 24 hours, phone (206) 783-7000. Recreational boaters normally don't call — red/green lights and loudspeakers run the show.
Why did that boat go ahead of me at the locks?
Federal priority — government and scheduled passenger vessels, then commercial, then recreational in arrival order — and commercial vessels take the small lock alone, so one ahead of you costs a full cycle; the rule and the timetabled vessels are on the commercial priority page. What a commercial lockage just ahead of you costs, measured, is on the wait-times page.
Is the wait longer at low tide?
Not meaningfully — tide height barely moves chamber time (measured on how the locks work); what lengthens a transit is demand, commercial priority and where you arrive in the lock cycle, not the water level.
Is it busier on weekends?
Not for pleasure boats: summer recreational traffic is flat across the week, and what drops at weekends (and holiday Mondays, which behave like weekends) is commercial traffic — the counts are on the wait-times page. Opening Day, the first Saturday of May, is the busiest day of the year; it and the other days to avoid are on the event calendar.
Who goes first when the Ballard Locks open?
Small lock: strictly first-come, first-served by arrival order; large lock: the biggest recreational boats load first to take the wall and smaller boats raft alongside them — the loading order, and the rest of the procedure, is in the transit guide.
When do the Ship Canal bridges not open for boats?
Weekdays 7–9 am and 4–6 pm for the Ballard, Fremont and University bridges, with different windows at the Montlake and an overnight notice rule — the full schedule is in the transit guide.

Deeper dives: the measured wait-time data · the transit procedure · commercial priority and the tour-boat timetable · how the locks physically work.

← back to LockPush

Membership

All of it is free right now. That will not last, and nothing on this site is promised to be free permanently. When membership starts, what it covers and what it costs will be posted here first.

Right now, everything is free. LockPush is in its introductory period while the archive fills out — the forecast improves with every month of lockage records it holds, and it would be poor form to charge for it before it has seen a full season. Nothing below is switched on yet.

What membership will cover

The published figures are a dated snapshot — one closed 30-day window in high summer, dated on the wait-times page. Membership is the live layer: not what was true in August, but what is true this afternoon.

Why it will not be free forever

Two reasons, and the second is the honest one.

The first is cost: a camera watcher runs continuously, AIS access is metered, and the archive has to be kept.

The second is that live timing advice is partly rivalrous. A gap in the schedule is a gap because most boats are not in it. If everyone moves on the same signal at the same moment, the signal stops being true — so the number of people acting on the live layer has to stay modest for it to be worth acting on at all. That is an unusual thing for a product to admit, but it is the actual reason.

Membership will be capped

It follows from the above: places are limited, and when they are gone the answer is a waiting list rather than a larger number. This is not a sales device. It is the same logic as the paragraph above — a live signal that everyone is acting on is no longer a live signal, and the only way to keep the thing worth paying for is to keep the roster small enough that it stays true.

Places free up as annual terms lapse, which is the main reason membership renews yearly rather than being bought once. If the cap is reached, joining the list costs nothing and you will be told when a place opens.

The measured analysis published on this site — the hour-by-hour figures, the commercial-priority effect, the cycle-position numbers — is not capped and not behind anything. It is free to read, free to quote, and it stays that way. What is capped is the live layer: current conditions, and what to do about them right now.

How it will work

No account and no password. You pay once a year through Stripe, and your browser holds a signed token that says you are a member. If you clear your cookies or change device, you enter the email address that paid and a fresh link is sent to it — Stripe is the only record, so there is no user database to breach and nothing to remember.

Operated by Clear Fountain LLC · Terms & disclaimer · Contact

← back to LockPush

LockPush — Terms of Use & Disclaimer

Who provides LockPush.

LockPush is developed, operated and provided by Clear Fountain LLC, a Washington limited liability company ("Clear Fountain," "we," "us"). LockPush℠ is a service mark of Clear Fountain LLC. These terms are an agreement between you and Clear Fountain LLC, and references below to LockPush include Clear Fountain LLC as its provider.

Planning reference only.

LockPush is a trip-planning reference tool for estimating waits at the Hiram M. Chittenden (Ballard) Locks. It is NOT a navigation system, NOT an official source of lock operations, schedules or closures, NOT affiliated with the US Army Corps of Engineers, and must not be relied upon as the sole basis for any navigational or operational decision.

Predictions are estimates.

All outputs — wait estimates, typical ranges, cycle projections, probabilities, commercial-traffic expectations, and camera-derived counts — are statistical estimates derived from publicly available US Army Corps of Engineers lockage records, a public webcam, and AIS vessel broadcasts, combined with simplified models of lock operation. Actual waits WILL differ from predictions, sometimes substantially: maintenance, closures, salinity management, staffing, vessel traffic and weather all affect lock operations in ways this service cannot observe.

The skipper is responsible.

The captain/operator of a vessel remains solely responsible at all times for the safety of the vessel and crew, for maintaining a proper lookout, for compliance with the Navigation Rules (COLREGS), lock personnel instructions and all applicable laws, and for all decisions regarding departure, routing, and seamanship. Always consult official sources — the Corps' published lock schedules and closure notices, NOAA charts and forecasts, and Local Notices to Mariners — before and during any passage.

No warranty.

LockPush is provided by Clear Fountain LLC "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE," without warranty of any kind, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy, or non-infringement. Clear Fountain LLC does not warrant that data feeds are current, complete, or error-free, or that the service will be uninterrupted.

Limitation of liability.

To the maximum extent permitted by law, Clear Fountain LLC, its members, officers, employees and agents, and its data providers shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special, or exemplary damages — including without limitation vessel damage, personal injury, death, delay, or economic loss — arising from or related to the use of, or inability to use, this application, even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Your sole and exclusive remedy is to discontinue use. In jurisdictions that do not allow certain exclusions, liability is limited to one hundred US dollars (US $100).

Data sources.

Lockage records are derived from the US Army Corps of Engineers Lock Performance Monitoring System (LPMS) public feed; vessel observations from a publicly available webcam; wait reports from voluntary user submissions. Neither the US Army Corps of Engineers nor any data provider endorses this application. All derived statistics are curated approximations.

Usage information.

LockPush requires no account. Standard technical information (IP address, approximate location derived from that address, browser and device type, and timestamps) is recorded when the service is used. IP addresses and approximate location are kept, until deleted, for the owner's traffic dashboard and are not shared. A cookie holding a random identifier, with nothing personal in it, lets that dashboard count returning visitors; it is not shared and is not used for advertising. Messages sent through the contact form are kept, with the same technical information, until deleted, so the owner can reply. Display preferences and your selected direction are stored locally in your browser. Clear Fountain LLC uses this information to measure and improve the service, diagnose problems, and distinguish development traffic from real use. It is not used for advertising and is not sold. Clearing your browser storage removes local preferences and that identifier.

Governing law.

These terms are governed by the laws of the State of Washington, United States, without regard to its conflict-of-law rules.

By using LockPush you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to these terms. © 2026 Clear Fountain LLC. All rights reserved.