The expected arrival-to-clear time for a recreational boat arriving at each half hour of tomorrow, in each direction, in minutes. Read the curve at the time you mean to arrive; the shaded band is where the middle half of measured transits landed.
| Time | To the Lakes | To the Sound | Expected commercial |
|---|
Minutes, arrival to clear, Pacific clock time. Expected commercial lists the regular services whose usual time is within half an hour of the slot, with the time they usually lock through.
How it is built: from the last 30 days of Corps records, with the model told what kind of day tomorrow is (a weekday or a weekend-like day) and conditioned by time of day, so each half hour takes the measured transit distribution for its part of the day. The timetable of regular commercial services adds their priced delay where their usual window covers the half hour. There is no live AIS, since it is tomorrow. The shaded band is the middle half of the measured transits (25th to 75th percentile). Hours with too few records show a gap.
A comparison is one recreational lockage (one chamber load, which may hold several boats) against the figure recorded the evening before for the half hour it arrived in. Error is actual minus forecast, so a positive bias means the forecast ran low.
| Day | Weekend-like | Comparisons | Forecast avg | Actual avg | Bias | Median error | Within 15 |
|---|
Minutes. Bias is the mean of actual minus forecast; median error is the median absolute error. A day with a forecast recorded but no comparisons yet shows zero comparisons until the Corps' records for it are banked.